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Can you say "R-E-C-O-V-E-R-Y" ?

June 9th, 2009 11:01 AM

Here's what we have all been waiting for...

On Monday, June 1, the Commerce Department reported total construction spending unexpectedly rose 0.8% in April.

The Institute for Supply Management reported the monthly index of manufacturing activity rose in May to 42.8 from 40.1 in April.

The National Association of Realtors reported that its pending home sales index, a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, rose 6.7% to 90.3 in April from 84.6 in March.

The Commerce Department reported factory orders rose 0.7% in April, after a revised 0.9% drop in March.

The Institute for Supply Management reported the monthly index of non-manufacturing activity rose in May to 44 from 43.7 in April.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 to 621,000 in the week ending May 30 from a revised figure of 625,000 in the previous week.

So far, so good!

Posted by Joyce Riviere on June 9th, 2009 11:01 AMPost a Comment (0)

What is wrong with this picture...

March 31st, 2009 8:06 AM

Sales are up, prices are down, rates are low...if you heard this statement several years ago, you would have jumped on this market! So, what's wrong with this picture?

How many of you have lost income due to the recsession (or maybe Dr. Alan Israel is right when he insists it's a depression). Or is it, since the lending rules have changed to reflect the sagging property values, that not as many of us have a real down payment laying around?

No 100% financing or stated income (over 80%) at this time. Self employed borrowers are having the worst time of all qualifying for loans. It's back to net income for them.

It'll all be back some day, believe me. Whatever you think it is, don't blink twice, you will miss this market. All is in flux and we are, at all times, a few spoken (or mis-spoken) words away from a market shift.

Anyway, I mean it when I say, I am here for you. Things are tough, but not as tough as they were...or are we just getting used to "tough"??? We resilliant little creatures will find light at the end of the tunnel, even if we have to dig our own tunnel and install the friggin light ourselves! No, I'm not a Polyanna, I am just making lemonade ("when life hands you lemons...").

Posted by Joyce Riviere on March 31st, 2009 8:06 AMPost a Comment (0)

New economic indicator Edwin Acevedo

March 19th, 2009 8:53 AM

Exciting news, if you really want to know if the economy is going to improve soon, check this out.

Edwin Acevedo just joined Advantage. I have known Edwin for five years. He was working for Boeing and working on his Masters Degree. He was buying real estate and became a saavy real estate investor.

Recently, Edwin left his position at Boeing and got his Broker's license. The fact that someone so highly educated would leave the corporate world to work in real estate full time tells me that 2009 is going to be a great year. In fact, I would consider Edwin's move a positive economic indicator!

Heads up, we are planning an open house in April, as soon as we get the new building sign up. It will be a fabulous wine and cheese even, complete with pilates and electric boat rides outside here in the harbour. It will be lots of fun and a little zany, so look for our invitation!

Posted by Joyce Riviere on March 19th, 2009 8:53 AMPost a Comment (0)

Bernanke's speech a big "duh"

February 24th, 2009 8:01 AM

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the economy is suffering through a "severe contraction" and pledged to use all available tools to lift the country out of the recession that already has cost millions of Americans their jobs...

What else is new?? What tools?? Aren't you fresh out of available tools?? Are there any sharp tools in your shed?? Isn't this the same statement you made six months ago?? Is this just another opportunity for Congress to postulate and get their faces on TV in front of their constituents??

...and this is me, the optimist! The truth is, the Congress is without tools. In the end, the markets are making the decisions. The markets, struggling to retain their freedom, are US and our power to INVEST IN AMERICA.

Still lovin' it!

Posted by Joyce Riviere on February 24th, 2009 8:01 AMPost a Comment (0)

This Week's Economic Reports Effect on Interest Rates

February 8th, 2009 11:16 PM

There are only three pieces of economic data scheduled to be posted this week along with a couple of Treasury auctions and relevant speeches from highly important speakers. Only one of the three reports are considered to be of high importance while one is moderately important. The third is not considered to be of much importance unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

None of the economic reports will be posted tomorrow. However, tomorrow evening President Obama will address the nation on national television. He will likely speak about his economic recovery plan amongst other important topics. What he says may heavily influence trading the following morning. It is very difficult to predict whether the markets are likely to react favorably to his words or negatively. But I am expecting to see volatility Tuesday morning.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday at 1:00 PM ET. He is expected t o testify and update the panel on the Fed's liquidity injections and future plans. His words could create movement in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing during afternoon trading.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release until Wednesday morning. This is when the week's least important data, December's Goods and Services Trade Balance, will be posted. This report measures the U.S. trade deficit and can affect the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, but it usually does not cause enough movement in bond prices to affect mortgage rates.

The most important of the three reports this week is Thursday's release of January's Retail Sales data. This report is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched quite closely. If Thursday's report reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and m ortgage rates will fall. However, a stronger reading than the expected unchanged level of sales could lead to higher mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in sales of 0.3%.

February's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. If it shows an increase in consumer confidence, the stock markets may move higher and bond prices could fall. It is currently expected to rise slightly from January's final reading of 61.2 to 61.5 for this month.

Overall, it is difficult to peg a particular day as the most important of the week. Tuesday will be quite interesting with the reaction to President Obama's words from Monday evening and Fed Bernanke's testimony on the Fed's attempts to stabilize the financial system. The single most important piec e of economic news comes Thursday, so that day needs to be given much weight also. Throw in the fact that there is an early close Friday due to the President's Day holiday next Monday, and we have the makings of an interesting week ahead of us.

Posted by Joyce Riviere on February 8th, 2009 11:16 PMPost a Comment (0)

TAKING A BITE OUT OF McMANSIONS

February 1st, 2009 7:24 PM

Smaller Is Better Goodbye to McMansions and, hello to the Mini Mac, as Americans turn to 'right-sized' homes. Recent research suggests that homes being built today are getting smaller. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the average size of homes started in the 3Q08 was 2,438 square feet, down from 2,629 square feet in the 2Q08. Similarly, the median size of homes started in the 3Q08 was 2,090, down from 2,291 in the 2Q08. The statistics confirm what the housing industry has suspected, America's housing demands are downsizing.
Gayle Butler, editor-in-chief of Better Homes and Gardens, said for many homeowners, it is not so much downsizing as "right-sizing", giving up big homes with unused space for homes that better fit their needs.
As homes get smaller, home-owners are economizing the space they do have. Butler says she is seeing more interest in "Wii-sized spaces." Other features high on the list include flexible family rooms that accommodate a variety of activities, from video games to fitness systems, and outdoor kitchens and entertaining areas.
According to a survey conducted by the magazine, 32% of the 733 potential new-home buyers participating said they expected their new home to be either somewhat smaller or much smaller than the one they already own.
"Either by necessity or choice, they're willing to take a step back from the McMansions," Butler said.
Other housing trends include:
Simpler Elements Consumers say they need fewer luxuries in their next home. 20% or more of the participants in the survey viewed upgraded landscaping, granite countertops, and luxurious master suites as less important, 35% graded high ceilings as less important.
Going Green The Better Homes and Gardens survey said 90% of those surveyed are planning to have energy-efficient heating and cooling systems and 31% plan to have geo-thermal heat. "The green theme touches everything in the home, from the food we look to consume, our health concerns in the home, building -- even our furnishings in the home," said Robin Avni, senior director and consumer strategist for the firm Iconoculture, a cultural trend research firm.
According to the National Association of Home Builders, 88% of builders surveyed in January said that they are building or planning to build a larger share of smaller homes and 89% said they're planning on building more lower-priced models.

Posted by Joyce Riviere on February 1st, 2009 7:24 PMPost a Comment (0)

Ups and Downs January 8, 2009

January 7th, 2009 9:28 PM

On the down side, Property values in California continue to be depressed. Experts say that home values will not go up soon and when they do, they will not go up quickly. On the up side, interest rates continue to be low and are expected to get lower, in an incentive effort to motivate buyers to buy and owners to refinance. Aside from all the ups and downs, the world still turns, doesn't it? While waiting for your Holy Grail to arrive, remember...more than ever, family values are strong, people strive to improve their lifestyles, and you can count on me to assist you with your real estate sale, purchase, lease, or mortgage loan. I look forward to a smashing year!!

Posted by Joyce Riviere on January 7th, 2009 9:28 PMPost a Comment (0)

This Year's Ebenezer Scrooge

December 21st, 2008 9:16 PM

THIS YEAR'S EBENEZER SCROOGE

To date nearly half of the $350 Billion of the $700 Billion TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) fund, approved by congress and earmarked to "bailout" financial institutions, has been distributed. At week's end about $17B remained uncommitted, that is, until President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulsen went on a pre-Christmas spending spree
Two things are certain: 1) If there is money in the bank, Washington cannot resist spending it and; 2) The Administration does not want the big three auto manufactures debacle to erupt on their watch - solution: to dish-out just enough to carry the big three through the inauguration and leave it on the desk of the new President and Congress.
On the latter, the Administration has acted over the objections of 26 House and Senate Republicans, who contest that the funds are specified for financial intuitions. Suggestions were made that diverting these funds could be both illegal and unconstitutional.
The Administration is undeterred and has committed to funding the remaining billions with vague conditions thus diverting a massive pre-Holiday layoff, an evitable confrontation with the UAW and a landside of allied business layoffs and closings.
President Bush postured his action as giving time for the auto firms to prepare for an orderly reorganization under chapter 11 bankruptcy rules. What he accomplished is to punt the problem to the Obama and a new congress that will be much more union-friendly.
What does this mean to the rest of us? We won't all be staring at a Bah Humbug holiday. But this does little for the housing industry or the greater economy. Washington's approach may relieve Wall Street and the Main Streets of Michigan; but elsewhere homeowners, mortgage holders and small business owners will continue to feel the sting of recession and tight credit.
This year's Ebenezer Scrooge - The legislation that offers relief to credit card holders, by preventing issuers from jacking up rates on consumers who have made their payments on time, does not take effect until 1010. In the meantime, many consumers will have their new debt service ratios excluding them from homebuying, refinancing and other purchases. The credit card companies are adding fuel to the credit crisis fire and Washington is their accomplice. Perhaps we have more than one Scrooge this season

Posted by Joyce Riviere on December 21st, 2008 9:16 PMPost a Comment (0)

LET THEM REFINANCE !!

December 1st, 2008 8:12 PM

Fannie, Freddie halt foreclosures for holidays

" Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently announced they will postpone foreclosure sales and evictions on occupied single-family residences that were scheduled to occur between Nov. 26, 2008 and Jan. 9, 2009. During this time, the companies will streamline their mortgage modification programs, scheduled to launch Dec. 15. Foreclosure attorneys and loan servicers will continue to contact borrowers who have defaulted on their mortgage loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, and continue to pursue workout plans. Whoo-Ahhhh! "

Ok, here's my take....let anyone, anyone at all, refinance their mortgage loan, any loan they have, into a fixed 30 yr loan at today's great rates! NO QUESTIONS ASKED! IRREGARDLESS of CREDIT, INCOME, or VALUE! ....AND NO PREPAYMENT PENALTIES!!

Posted by Joyce Riviere on December 1st, 2008 8:12 PMPost a Comment (0)

Fasten your seat belts!

September 15th, 2008 6:06 AM

We are in for a bumpy week, kids!

Lehman Brothers is poised to file bankruptcy, Merril Lynch is going to be bought out by Bank of America, WAMU is going down next, AIG to follow... The numbers are staggering. Consumer confidence is in historic crisis. Where it will all end I do not know, but it was foretold and it has to happen, a massive reversal of fortune, to bring us all back to economic reality.

This economic unreality is not only in the US. Our irresponsibilities have effected Asia and Europe, as well. This is a global event, an unprecedented cleansing of the books. The Fed meets this week. Most likely will leave the Fed rate as is.

So buckle up!

Posted by Joyce Riviere on September 15th, 2008 6:06 AMPost a Comment (0)